Number 15

The macroeconomic environment in 2025 began with moderately positive expectations, marked by projections of a smooth and gradual slowdown in economic activity alongside relatively controlled inflation. This scenario encouraged a progressive monetary easing and a stabilization of interest rate curves, providing a favorable backdrop for the performance of the insurance industry on a global scale. However, throughout the first quarter of the year, the situation changed significantly. The tariff policies pursued by the U.S. government have introduced further instability into the global economic landscape, affecting short-term projections. This decline in global economic growth has had a significant impact on the insurance market, leading to a downgrade of growth forecasts, with the corresponding differences across geographic insurance regions.

Nominal growth in insurance premiums globally (see Chart 1) reflects the uneven recovery between Life and Non-Life segments, driven by macroeconomic volatility, currency fluctuations, and the effects of inflation and global monetary policy. Looking ahead, forecasts suggest a return to nominal stability in the global insurance market after years of high volatility, with expected growth rates of around 4% annually over the medium term. However, this apparent stability could mask structural tensions, such as the persistent insurance gap in emerging markets, pressure on technical margins due to climate change, and the need for the Life segment to adapt to a more uncertain financial environment.

A more detailed analysis of each selected period is provided below:

1. Pandemic and post-pandemic cycle (2021–2023)

In 2021, relatively solid growth was observed in both Life (5.0%) and Non-Life (6.0%), driven by the economic rebound that followed the initial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the effect of economic reopening.

However, 2022 saw a significant downturn in the Life segment (-3.3%), largely attributed to tightening financial conditions (interest rate hikes), which negatively affected the appeal of traditional savings and Life Protection products. In contrast, the Non-Life segment showed greater resilience with 4.4% growth, thanks to the inflationary effect on premium prices and the recovery of lines such as health and auto insurance.

In 2023 came a turning point: both segments experienced strong rebounds, with 6.2% growth in Life and a notable 8.5% increase in Non-Life. This can be explained by the economy returning to normal, the market’s adaptation to new interest rates, and a greater perception of risk that saw more people take out insurance.

2. Moderate medium-term outlook (2024–2026)

Forecasts for 2024 indicate a moderation in growth: 5.1% for Life and 4.2% for Non-Life. This adjustment reflects the expected global economic slowdown and the stabilization of premium prices after recent peaks in inflation.

For 2025 and 2026, projected growth remains around 4% for both lines, with small fluctuations (Life: 4.3% and 4.4%; Non-Life: 3.9% and 4.0%), respectively. This stability suggests a return to more structural growth patterns, aligned with the advance of digitalization, demographic aging, and increasing exposure to systemic risks (climate, cyber, and health-related).

Regarding global premium growth contributions, broken down by Life and Non-Life lines from the first quarter of 2019 to the end of 2026 (see Chart 2), a significant acceleration in total growth can be seen throughout 2021, peaking in the second quarter of the year (9%), driven by Life. This reflects a post-pandemic rebound effect, likely tied to increased demand for protection and savings products. This recovery contrasts with the contraction seen in 2022, where total growth fell and even dipped into the red in some quarters, with Life clearly making a negative contribution. In contrast, Non-Life continues to make a sustained, positive contribution to growth, even during phases in which growth can be seen to be slowing down. This pattern highlights the structural resilience of the segment, which tends to be more closely linked to the economic cycle (motors, health, and home insurance) and is less volatile in the face of financial shocks. Its role as a stabilizing agent is particularly evident in 2022, preventing a larger decline in overall growth.

Starting in 2023, a moderate but more stable path of recovery begins. Although the Life segment is recovering, its contribution is more contained and variable, while Non-Life continues to act as the main catalyst of growth. For the 2025–2026 period, forecasts suggest sustained growth of between 4% and 6%, with a more balanced share between both lines, suggesting the reconfiguration of the global insurance portfolio toward greater diversification.

Finally, below is an analysis of the contributions to Life premium growth by economic region:

The contribution to Life premium growth by economic region (see Chart 3) shows strong volatility, particularly linked to the COVID-19 pandemic and its effects on the economy. From mid-2023, the global trend turns positive and more balanced. From 2024 onward, the dispersion of regional contributions is more contained, indicating more synchronized growth on a global scale. This return to normal is expected to be consolidated in the 2025-2026 period, with positive contributions by virtually all regions, including Latin America and Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, which historically made more volatile contributions.

It is worth noting that the European Union and the United Kingdom made particularly negative contributions, especially between Q1 2022 and Q1 2023, significantly detracting from global Life premium growth (up to -9% quarterly at times). This decline can be explained by low interest rates, regulatory pressure, and changes in savings patterns.

North America makes a consistently positive contribution throughout the period, particularly between 2020 and 2021. Its ability to sustain growth even during the most disruptive global quarters positions this region as a structural stabilizer of the Life insurance market. This trend can be associated with expansionary monetary and fiscal policies in the U.S. and the strong savings component in the Life insurance segment.

China also plays a leading role, with generally positive, albeit uneven, contributions, especially between 2019 and 2021. However, its contributions to growth lose momentum starting in 2022, coinciding with the structural slowdown of its economy and tensions in the real estate market.

Emerging Asia (excluding China), meanwhile, contributes positively though modestly, reflecting its expansion potential, albeit still constrained by issues related to financial development and insurance penetration.

Developed Asia and Oceania, and Latin America, account for a smaller weight in absolute terms; however, their performance is relevant when it comes to understanding the structural dynamics of Life insurance in transition or mature economies with low population growth. Their contributions, while modest, are positive in the final stretch of the horizon subject to analysis, accompanying the overall sector recovery.

In summary, global Life premium growth is clearly shaped by regional dynamics, with North America and China being the main drivers, and where the post-COVID recovery shows a trend of greater geographic diversification. This pattern suggests an opportunity to strengthen the resilience of the global market through policies that promote macroeconomic stability, financial development, and insurance inclusion in still underrepresented regions.

As regards Non-Life premium growth by economic region (see Chart 4), the breakdown is as follows:

North America has been the biggest contributor to global Non-Life premium growth throughout the period. Its contribution has been consistently positive and particularly notable between Q1 2021 and Q1 2022, where growth exceeded 6 percentage points. This trend reflects both the size of the U.S. market and its economic recovery following the pandemic, driven by expansionary fiscal policies, rate tightening in commercial lines, and the repricing of risk in response to extreme weather events.

The EU and the UK have shown an uneven trajectory, with notable negative contributions in Q1 2022 and Q2 2022, possibly related to the post-pandemic slowdown, the war in Ukraine, high inflation, and pressures on household purchasing power. However, from 2023 onward, their recovery becomes evident, albeit modest, indicative of the stabilization of the economic environment and the possible revival of personal and commercial insurance.

Meanwhile, China and emerging Asia have maintained a steady and slightly positive contribution, without this making them significant drivers of global growth. In the case of China, this may reflect an already mature Non-Life market and the structural difficulties of its economy, while in emerging Asia, the contributions are limited on account of the limited weight of the insurance industry in their economies.

The EMEA (Europe, the Middle East, and Africa) group has maintained a marginally positive contribution, a testament to its stability over time, although without assuming a clear leading role. This is a reflection of the region’s fragmented markets and, in many cases, a low degree of insurance penetration.

In the case of Latin America, a slight improvement can be seen starting in 2023, following the COVID-19 pandemic with its significant economic impact. Recent positive contributions may be attributable to the recovery of the economy, the digitalization of distribution channels, and greater risk awareness among the population.

Finally, the economies of developed Asia and Oceania contribute only marginally to global growth. Their stable yet limited performance suggests that, although these are mature markets, growth in Non-Life premiums is more closely tied to rate adjustments than to structural expansions.

Over the forecast horizon (2025–2026), it is expected that regional patterns will stabilize. North America will continue to lead growth, while Europe and emerging Asia consolidate their recovery. No major surges are expected in the contribution of other regions, suggesting that the dynamism of the Non-Life sector will remain concentrated in mature economies with rate adjustments and increasing exposure to climate risks.

In short, global growth in Non-Life premiums is heavily reliant on North America, with a second group of regions (EU, China, emerging Asia) making a more moderate contribution. Regional discrepancies reflect both structural differences in insurance development and the impact of macroeconomic and climate factors. This interpretation means opportunities can be anticipated for the sector in regions with low relative growth, such as Latin America and Africa, where the protection gap remains significant.

As a final note, and bearing structural considerations in mind, there is reason to argue that the pattern is mixed, with cyclical leadership in Life insurance during times of expansion, and structural stability in Non-Life insurance, which cushions downturns and ensures more consistent growth in the global insurance market. This uneven evolution between Life and Non-Life underscores the different cyclical and financial sensitivity of both segments. Life insurance responds more strongly to interest rates and long-term savings expectations, while the Non-Life segment is more reactive to cost inflation and immediate demand for protection. The insurance industry must continue to strengthen its capacity for innovation, risk management, and regional diversification to sustain inflation-adjusted real growth in the coming years.

At the following link, you can find detailed macroeconomic and premium growth forecasts for the insurance market in 2025 and 2026 at a regional level and for a selection of the main insurance markets, in the report 2025 Economic and industry outlook: second-quarter forecast update, prepared by MAPFRE Economics.